The Concepts of Equilibrium Exchange Rate: A Survey of Literature

The aim of this paper is to review and examine a collection of 'most commonly applied' theoretical and empirical models of equilibrium exchange rate. The presentation on each model starts with an introduction of core theoretical frameworks. It will then be followed by discussions on relevant empirical steps to estimate the equilibrium rate. The rest of the paper will focus on assessing the strengths and weaknesses of the model and how each relates to the other.

Pursuing Inflation Targeting Policy Framework in the Midst of Inflationary Pressures and Fiscal Constraint in Indonesia

Pushing for a higher and a more robust growth while maintaining price stability within a target range of inflation continue to be core tasks for the macroeconomic policy management in Indonesia in recent years. Whilst inflation was successfully kept below the target of 7 percent at the end of 2007, the monthly year on year inflation has already gone above 10 percent by May 2008 and is expected to reach 11 percent by end of 2008. Fiscal policy continues to be relatively marginalized and lacks of stimulus, with a significant share of the current expenditure of the 2008 budget has to be allocated to finance subsidy and debt service. Our study investigates the commitment of the country to its inflation targeting (IT) policy in the midst of fiscal constraint and the urgent need to push for higher growth rate. It examines preliminary outcomes of the IT policy and highlights dilemmas and potential policy trade-offs.Inflation Targeting Policy; Expenditure Policy; Inflation; and Fiscal Constraint

The Concepts of Equilibrium Exchange Rate: A Survey of Literature

The aim of this paper is to review and examine a collection of ‘most commonly applied’ theoretical and empirical models of equilibrium exchange rate. The presentation on each model starts with an introduction of core theoretical frameworks. It will then be followed by discussions on relevant empirical steps to estimate the equilibrium rate. The rest of the paper will focus on assessing the strengths and weaknesses of the model and how each relates to the other.Equilibrium, Exchange Rate Models, PPP, Monetary Model, BEER, DEER, FEER, PEER and NATREX

Interest Rate Spreads and Mandatory Credit Allocations: Implications on Banks Loans to Small Businesses in Indonesia

Recent studies have consistently shown that the East-Asian crisis-stricken countries have suffered from different degrees of credit crunch, particularly during the early stages of the crisis. However, only few of them have looked closely into the breakdowns of the loans and the roles of different groups of banks in explaining the rise and fall of bank lending, particularly to the small businesses during the post-1997 financial crisis. This paper aims to fill this void by looking at closely the recent development in Indonesia.Small-Scale Enterprises, Bank Loans, Interest Spreads, Mandatory Credit Allocation, State and Private National Banks, Indonesia

Economic Shocks and Exchange Rate as a Shock Absorber in Indonesia and Thailand

This study investigates the requirement for the exchange rate to be a shock absorber in Indonesia and Thailand from 1986 to 2007. In general, we find that the economic shocks have predominantly been asymmetric relative to the US and the Japanese economies. Yet, the weights attached to the US dollar remain respectably high in the exchange rate management of the rupiah and the baht, in particular for the latter currency, during the post-1997 crisis. Hence, relinquishing the role of exchange rate as a shock absorber has been costly during both the pre-and the post-1997 crisis periods for these Southeast Asian countries. Furthermore, it is arguably more costly for Thailand during the post-1997, and for Indonesia during the pre-1997 crisis.Economic Shocks; Shock Absorber; Exchange Rate; Structural Vector Autoregression; Indonesia; Thailand

INTEREST RATE POLICY AND ITS IMPLICATION ON THE BANKING RESTRUCTURING PROGRAMS IN INDONESIA DURING THE 1997-FINANCIAL CRISIS: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION.

Despite a number of changes in the leaderships of the Indonesian Bank Restructuring Agency (IBRA) and in the policy approaches adopted by the country to restructure the banking sector, the progress has been less than impressive. This study shows that that the selection of policy measures adopted by the monetary authorities during the post-1997 financial crisis, has adversely affected the performance of the restructured banks. In particular, the high domestic interest rate policy adopted to stabilize the local currency and to keep a tight growth of base money has not been an effective one. Instead, this policy has arguably raised the cost of bank restructuring in the country.Financial Crisis; Bank Restructuring; Interest Rate

Incidences of Speculative Attacks on Rupiah During The Pre- and Post-1997 Financial Crisis

The objective of this study is to identify and date the episodes of high speculative attack periods against the Indonesian rupiah over the last fifteen years (i.e. from 1985 to 2003). From the findings, we hope to address the following set of questions. Had rupiah indeed been stable prior to its meltdown in the third quarter 1997? Arguably a more relevant question to be addressed at this point is whether the rupiah has stabilized, as measured by a relatively moderate EMP index, since its worst fall in late 1997? This study also hopes to introduce a simple measurement index to detect the presence of market pressures in the foreign exchange market, and to illustrate a reliable methodology to estimate a “threshold” separating low market pressures from the extreme ones.Currency Crisis; Exchange Market Pressure; Speculative Attacks; Extreme Value Theory; Rupiah.

Successful and Unsuccessful Attacks: Evaluating the Stability of the East Asian Currencies

The key objective of our study is to re-examine again the stability of selected East Asian currencies. Had there been any other attacks on these currencies prior to their meltdowns in 1997? Equally important, have the currencies stabilized during the post-1997 crisis? To address these questions, we adopt the concept of exchange market pressure (EMP) index of Kaminsky, Lizondo, and Reinhart (1998). Due to non-normality of the statistical distribution of the EMP indices in general, this study applies the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) as proposed by Huisman, Koedijk, Kool, and Palm (2001). Lastly, we document events that arguably contribute to speculative attacks on these currencies.Currency Crisis; Exchange Market Pressure; Extreme Value Theory; East Asia.

Models of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates Revisited: A Selective Review of the Literature

One of the more important concepts in open macroeconomics is the “equilibrium real exchange rate” (ERER). Real exchange rate misalignments are argued to have been the cause of loss of competitiveness and growth slowdowns and eventual currency crises (in the event of sustained overvaluations), overheating (in the event of sustained undervaluation), sectoral misallocation of resources, and global macroeconomic imbalances. This paper examines the underlying concepts, assumptions and analytical bases of commonly employed models of the equilibrium real exchange rate and the manner in which they are usually computed (i.e. operationalized) as well as their shortcomings.Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate (ERER), BEER, FEER, PEER, NATREX, Purchasing Power Parity (PPP).

Base Money and Exchange Rate: Sources of Inflation in Indonesia during the Post-1997 Financial Crisis

The magnitude of the rise in inflation rate in Indonesia during the height of the 1997 financial crisis was among the sharpest that the East Asian economies has ever witnessed in the recent decades. This paper empirically tests the monetary hypotheses of inflation and compares and contrasts the sources of price changes during the pre- and post-1997 financial crisis. We find a high explanatory power of the monetary model for the post-crisis period, but not for the pre-crisis. The high volatilities of the local currency and the unprecedented rapid growth rate of base money during the post-crisis are found to be the two key monetary determinants of the inflation in the country.Inflation, Base Money, Expected Depreciation, Exchange Rate Policy, East Asian Financial Crisis